The Electric Cable Car Predictions (and Hopes) for 2026

Last year I published a 2025 predictions post on the first of January. I’m a bit late this time around, but I thought it would be worth to take another stab at this. Having said this, looking at my predictions for 2025, I must admit, I feel like I didn’t do so well. Let me recap and grad myself before we dive into 2026:

Events

My prediction grade: C
I called the World Trail Majors and the Golden Trail World Series a “possibly shake up”, but in reality it didn’t really shake anything, in fact GTWS seems to be retreating everywhere, despite their big calls to be the vehicle to take the sport of trail running to the Olympics. And the WTM lost to key races for their series.

I suggested UTMB would be even keel, and it mostly was, keeping their system largely the same, just quietly working on their expansion. But then late in the year their Zugspitz announcement made some negative waves and maybe now that things are all in line and there’s no drama there’s a general feeling of ‘meh’ setting in. Sort of like getting a coffee at Starbucks.

Business

My prediction grade: B-
A non-endemic sponsor would be entering the sport. And that did happen with OnlyFans signing Sabrina Stanley. But the bigger splash came in late with Nike/ACG’s announcements.

No NDAs have fallen. But athletes continue to fight with influencers over brand dollars and that tariffs are reshaping how brands are spending dollars in the sport.

Product

My prediction grade: B+
I suggested in jest that breathing strips would be branded at Western States, what I hinted at is that after a couple of years of shoe brands pushing “really break-through performance gains with carbon-plated shoes the focus would switch to something intangible. And that is exactly what Nike did with their shirt with holes in. Hyped as performance shirt it’s still massively questionable if this is the case, and in any case, the shirt’s not for sale, so no one can even verify if it’s true.

Performances

My prediction grade: C-
Unbreakable 2 didn’t happen at Western States. There was plenty of drama, but Kilian didn’t dominate the race. (To my surprise, he’s already back on the WSER starting list for 2026 to give it another go.)

UTMB’s Finals were overshadowed by extreme weather which dictated the storylines and reminded everyone why there’s a mandatory gear list. The other thing that I completely missed is that the WMTRC overshadowed UTMB even more than the weather and created breakout athlete storylines late in the season and at an even that’s not WSER or UTMB.

Media

My prediction grade: C-
No new story telling media format emerged – as I predicted. Livestreams sort of work, but work best for really long events like 200s and Backyard Ultras. The trail media continued to grow up and professionalize and GTWS proclaimed success with their Warner Media partnership. Would we call this a new media format?

Overall score: C

So, with that sobering assessment, let’s throw some lofty predictions out for the year 2026 in trail and mountain running.

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2026 Predictions (and Hopes)

Events

As trail events get bigger the role of the RD is shifting. If your expectations is to build an event like, for example, Mammoth Trailfest you don’t also manage a trail racing series for the rest of the year – which used to be the way for RDs to generate a year-round sustainable business. With the continued rising demands on RDs to add ALL THE THINGS (prize money, doping controls, livestreaming, festival atmostphere) to their events something’s gotta give, or maybe, the role of the RD, as we’ve defined that role here in North America is shifting. My prediction is that we see a continued split and new form of event defining itself here in the US. You can call it the Euro-fication of the sport, but as the sport grows in the US, and as political winds blow folks might stay closer to home) we see the trail race turn more and more into a festival.

It will be interesting to see how many people are putting their name into the UTMB lottery this year, and what that will do to the chances for folks getting selected. I bet that as this becomes harder every year – more events, more people, more stones, UTMB will twist the dials to the system and not let the lottery turn into what is happening at WSER and Hardrock where folks are having to apply year after year. I foresee that before the lottery for 2027 we will see some changes to the way the system works. And I bet we won’t be happy about it.

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Business

I just saw JCrew’s official Winter Olympics capsule and that makes me wonder when one of the brands is going to release a Chamonix capsule for UTMB, or a California capsule for WSER. I know that brands have released limited editions shirts, and announced shoes alongside these events, but I wonder what brand will be the first to go “all in”. Let’s turn this into a prediction for 2026. I predict this year will be the year. And I guess it won’t come from Hoka, since they are really only a shoe maker. So, … it needs to be a brand that is also known to make clothes. Hmmmm.

Alongside the same line of thinking I predict that the “trail first brands” aren’t going to take NIKE’s ACG offense laying down and will be responding. While I do think that (see below) the tariffs are having an impact on the real R&D, in the marking department brands will spend on color ways and matching sets to capitalize on the growing interest in “trail”.

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Product

In the light of economic uncertainties and stupid tariffs companies have pulled back on R&D. I don’t foresee them releasing any new “groundbreaking” product that’s aim at redefining the sport. Lower-priced shoes (marketed for gravel) but really, are just door to trail shoes at a lower price point with fewer bells and whistles are released to capture the market of folks tired of spending $300 on shoes.

We might see a version 2 of ACG’s crochet grandma shirt – I bet it will look a lot more like a regular shirt.

If cutting holes in shirts can turn heads and have people talking, I wonder if other companies are going to introduce copycats and for hot weather races a shirt with holes could be the sport defining athlete’s kit? Hahahaha, that would be something. (I can’t wait to read this next year!)

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Performances

Francesco Puppi is going to win Western States. That’s the storyline I want to see.

2025 was the year villains emerged, but most of them were did so off trail. I predict 2026 we will see a villain on the trail. Maybe another doping case will rock our sport.

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Media

Freetrail, inarguably trail’s biggest media player, has found its groove, and the money with it, so it seems. Most everyone else in our media space has just been following suit and does “Freetrail type stuff” with a slightly different flavor, focus, or angle. Someone has to try to create something different. Our sport is unique, we should try to be more creative and find a media product that matches that. Please.

Live-streaming will continue to sharpen its output. Better on-screen graphics, more experienced voices. This ‘product’ seems to have found its groove, just not its money yet, I would assume. Maybe we finally see this year a “must watch” recap show, one that brings the highlights together into a bitesized product.

Alright, 2026 – let’s go!