2025 Predictions For Our Sport

The Electric Cable Car predictions for 2025 for the world of trail running and mountain culture. How will the sport evolve? What will happen throughout the year? Of course, I have no idea what is going to happen. But am excited to follow along, observe and comment, and connect the dots.

EVENTS

World Trail Majors already fulfilled one of my major prediction for 2025. And I suppose Golden Trail Series did so as well: A significant shake up of the racing calendar through some major restructuring. Salomon dropped several well-known and even historic events of the GTS. WTM added a short race series. My guess is that UTMB will keep things fairly straight this year. 2024 felt like the first year the UTMB World Series fully operated and we’ve seen several races come and go. And while the ones that left the series were surprising, it also provided a playbook of how this series might position itself: more movement than one anticipated. And rather explosive growth we’ll see slower growth to keep up with the churn (the races that are leaving the series). I bet we’ll seen another wave of professionalization of the entire event week for the UTMB Finals in Chamonix, but no major shakeup or addition. That I believe will come in 2026 in form of maybe another event being added to the Finals races (UTMB, CCC, OCC) or more short distance events added around Mont Blanc in the various towns. (I don’t think Chamonix itself could handle many more finishes under that blue arch.)
Will we hear the word ‘ambush marketing’ at Western States?

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BUSINESS

We will see a real, big time non-endemic brands enter our sport. Either joining as UTMB partner and/or as sponsors for one of the big athletes in our sport. The year with a Trump presidency will suck economically – hello tariffs – so more companies will look to align themselves with feel-good stories out in the mountains. “Run for the hills” as marketing model.

Another prediction of mine that’s already sort of fulfilled:
Elite athletes are recognizing that they are way more dependent on their sponsors than on event organizations putting on races. The PTRA and individuals will openly call to end the NDAs and start calling out brands, rather than race organizations in their hope to get better employment/sponsorship considerations. 2024 was a tough year for many outdoor brands and elites on sponsor contracts have felt that and are ready to turn on the hand that’s feeding them.

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PRODUCT

Strava Recap said that over 40% of runners claimed to have run their marathon in a carbon-plated shoe. Mind-boggling to me, if this number is correct. But in reality 2024 felt like a year where no product really broke through and had everyone talking (Ketones don’t count. They paid to have people talk about them snake oil). The only new product I spotted on some of the top runners that no one is talking about: the nose strip. My prediction: That little un-branded breathing helper will see some attention for 2025 and several runners will sport a branded one for Western States.

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PERFORMANCES

If Kilian Jornet – as rumored – might really return to Western States that would be the biggest story of the first half of the year. And it will be an even bigger story if mountain athlete Kilian can win against the “cross country” US boys who train every day on “California carpet”.
I say ‘first half’, because I believe that after a disappointing – for elites – UTMB Finals in 2024 we won’t be seeing another DNF bloodbath, but a tight, exciting race with big names gunning for the podium. Where 2024 was a year where the elites didn’t boycott, but sort of, sheepishly showed up in Chamonix, 2025 will be everything full one, 100% back to normal for the elites – Zach Miller might even find himself back in Chamonix.

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MEDIA

Live-streaming is so expensive that the ROI isn’t penciling out for smaller startups. Heck, it’s a massive investment and the ROI is still very out for even the big players. Aside from Aravaipa no other company has even the slightest chance to get into this game here in the US, and in Europe it’s just UTMB’s game. In fact any multimedia production is such a heavy lift – and media start ups have learned their lessons – that we will continue to see the trend “from video to newsletter” and lighter forms of reporting with the focus on individual personalities. Some new way of telling the stories and celebrating the running community around the big races will emerge.

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Alright, Happy New Year – 2025, let’s go!